7 DECEMBER 2003
Gold has risen in past relative to CRB Index, therefore best speculation is in Gold direct.
[DG - though CRB is huge index, HH mentioned Nickel and other commodities which would act in a similar way to Gold]

NDX/Dow ratio dipped slightly below again. January 2004 peak for stock market?

European investors seen neutral year, if SP falls below 1033 at same exchange level, then will be negative.

FOMC expectation is now move to neutral on inflation expectation, however if still risks downwards then dollar will suffer.

MAIN SCENARIO: Very near to short term top, expect 1-2 month shallow rally.
OTHER SCENARIO: Dollar drops further, maybe 127, gold alight, $460 gold target in 2 weeks.

Gold overshooting on long term trend, could overshoot further (before falling back?).

Low 80s for dollar expected to be bottom for 1-2 years.
posted by Dil at 4:08 PM