Speculative Gold |
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Sunday, October 04, 2009
5 october - good newsletter 1) Copper decline from 270 to 225 finspreads 0.05 december = 20 per point 300 upside risk 1 point 600 loss max 20 for 400 gain 2) oscillator shows stocks overbought 3) lowest hours worked per employee ever increase hours before taking on extra sstaff 4) next upward step gold arrived downside 970 5) stock market topping will continnue many months 6) fnv.to to break out@ gold stock 7) euro - heading low 150s loonie high 90s but dollar will rebound not that far off (speculaion moinies funded in dollar, market declines etc will mean more dollar repatriation, stronger dollar buying back) 8) CUU speculative gold producer interesting follow --------------------------------------------- cu play most interesting downturn in stock markets deflation etc more likely gold decline first Sunday, March 15, 2009
15 March 2009 The US stock market's reversal following last Monday's weakness was impressive and included two 90% up-days (days when up-volume was at least 90% of total volume). This signals that the long-awaited multi-month rebound has most likely begun, although it would not be surprising if last week's surge to the upside was followed by a week of consolidation. The fundamental underpinnings of the gold bull market continue to become more solid by the week, with the latest addition to the long list of gold-bullish factors being last week's decision by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to pursue an aggressively easy monetary policy with the specific goal of weakening its currency. However, we continue to expect that gold will consolidate below $1000 for as long as it takes to work off the excitement generated by the quick-fire $200 price increase that occurred earlier this year. The sentiment situation certainly doesn't guarantee that gold won't soon break above its February peak and rocket to much higher prices. It just means that additional corrective activity is the most likely near-term outcome. At this time we are only short-term bearish on the US$ in anticipation of a euro rebound to the mid-1.30s. Potential trade: MOO Sunday, September 28, 2008
30 September 2008 Instead of furthering the inevitable liquidation of the maladjustments brought about by the boom during the last three years, all conceivable means have been used to prevent that readjustment from taking place; and one of these means, which has been repeatedly tried though without success, from the earliest to the most recent stages of depression, has been this deliberate policy of credit expansion. Sunday, April 13, 2008
14th APRIL 2008 The Euro: a soft currency with a (temporarily) hard image Longer-term negatives could soon become short-term issues The main reason we think the tipping point is close to being reached is that Spain and Italy are facing big economic problems, and we don't think the governments of these countries will be content to accept the ECB's relatively tight monetary stance for much longer. On a longer-term basis, the unfunded government liabilities issue that confronts Italy today will confront both Germany and France within the next several years. It's an issue that governments will almost certainly want to 'solve' via inflation, because any genuine (viable long-term) solution would entail considerable short-term pain. It therefore looks like some current EMU members will opt out of the euro in the not-too-distant future. Either that, or the ECB will jettison its inflation-fighting image and begin operating in a way that makes the Bernanke Fed appear tight-fisted. The stock market's 'prescience' GE is probably the most widely followed stock in the world, yet the market and the many analysts that follow the stock weren't able to anticipate the CURRENT quarter's earnings (let alone future quarters' earnings!). It seemed to come as a complete surprise that GE, the largest financial services company in the US, was being hurt by the credit crisis. - There will be more negative surprises as first quarter earnings are reported over the coming fortnight, but because sentiment is already at such a depressed level the market will handle these negatives rather well - The market will begin to rally based on the belief that the bad news is already factored into stock prices and that things will improve during the second half of this year - Some time over the next couple of months the market will reach the point where it is discounting a rosy future, but then it will begin dawning on investors that Q1-2008's earnings were nowhere near the bottom of the cycle - A 6-12 month downward trend (the next bear-market leg) will commenceThe stock market is likely to hit bottom many months before the economy hits bottom. This is because the extrapolation of bad news will eventually cause stock prices to fall to where they have discounted the worst. However, it would be very unusual, perhaps even unprecedented, for the market to bottom before a recession is widely acknowledged (at the present time there is still a lot of discussion about whether the US can AVOID a recession). Further to the above, there's a good chance of the current rebound continuing until sentiment has become bullish/complacent enough to push TIBS up to at least 25. Sunday, January 21, 2007
Saturday, January 20, 2007
25/11/2005 Finance Week Jim Rogers US$ bet against Canadian, NZ, Singpure, Bernanke will ruin Fed Reserve Iowa, Oklahoma - land prices will rise with increase in agriculture prices Parts of Canada, prices will kep rising Probably the Middle East too. brazil,peru,chile - better than before coffee,cotton,soya,maize good now china better future than india russia is a disaster as is saudi arabia gold still bring mined central banks can sell silver a lot more inventories than lead or zinc Monday, January 01, 2007
Interest rates?? Year of 2 halves US is worse than expected, bond prices down, stock market does better commodities worse, Far East worse In second half inflation greater again, gold saoring  11 Dec 2006 Yes should be strong, but low interest rates keep it weaker, at the lower end of normal. 4 December 2006 NG in double figures for 2008 [JP Morgan Indian Investment Trust Saudi Stock Market] 20 November 2006
Is that why Hendry thinks that Gold and other commodities still morelikely to go down. 9 January 2006 gold will be hit during the INITIAL phase of a general downturn in stocks and commodities. However, once the Fed panics and begins to overtly promote inflation it is very likely that counter-cyclical gold will begin to move up strongly while the cyclical markets continue to trend lower. 20th February 2006 |