7 MAY

- Dollar/Bond ratio vv low level, indicating a crisis
- Equity market complacent, positive

- Non-confirmation that A$ not risen relative to €

- pullback over next week or two: aslong as NASDQ/DOW line not broken, further advance possible

- WMT good leading indicator Walmart

- Most likely, huge divergence in equity outlook and economic outlook, will be resolved

- Dollar Index at 95 now, if fall back to 90, then counter rally expected multi month

- Gold moves much more closely with SF tha $
- Catch up by SF and A$ and C$ against strength of $

- Gold to move to $360 in next few weeks, but don't buy short term speculation

- Newmont a buy at $25

- Lucent to move to $3, from $2

posted by Dil at 3:16 PM

 
5 MAY
- Overall, equities expect pullback by further advance as long as fear is developed and NASDAQ to DOW continues to go higher

- Dollar spike below support for a few weeks, followd by multiple month rally

- SP could have reached high or rally for next 2 months
SP not broken out in gold terms, likely to be more accurate indicator as little watched

- Therefore, if you were a large player with a lot of stock to distribute one of the ways to do so at the most attractive price would be to manufacture a breakout above obvious resistance. You could then distribute your stock into the buying frenzy created by the breakout. Similarly, if you wanted to buy a substantial position at the best possible price one way to do so would be to first manufacture a breakdown below obvious support.

- US Government meddling in the stock market is far more subtle and involves such things as selling people on the idea that the CPI represents inflation and then manipulating the CPI inputs, or the methods used to calculate the CPI, in order to manage/mold beliefs and expectations.

- Sentiment is bullish, not good for advance

- NASDAQ 1520 resistance
- ALCOA, $26,7 rise over next 3 months
- SCHLUMBERGER - bullish
Indicated oil may be within 10% of low price

- CISCO to $16,7 fundamentally still very overvalued

- TBond not to crash

- SF to strengthen
- Yen to strengthen, but wait for breakout

- Gold, holding just at €300, could be bearish if it falls below that
- HUI could fall back before advancing again
- CDU TSX buy and BZA TSX
posted by Dil at 9:36 AM